Data sourced from the U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Star, and the EIA.

Heat Pump ROI Calculator

Compare a cold-climate heat pump's running cost against your current fuel, using your own rates. Enter your electricity price and fuel price — they decide the answer, and against cheap natural gas the heat pump can come out more expensive to run.

60 MMBtu

Delivered heat per year, not fuel purchased. Roughly 40–60 MMBtu for a mid-size home in a mixed climate, higher in the North. Floor area alone does not determine this — insulation, air sealing and climate zone matter more.

18.4¢

Per kWh. Use your own effective rate — total dollars divided by total kWh on the bill. This is the single biggest variable in the result.

15.3

In $/Mcf, from your own bill or delivery ticket.

96%

AFUE of the existing furnace or boiler. It is on the yellow EnergyGuide label or the nameplate. Older units are often 70–80%.

3.0

Seasonal average, not the rated peak. Hours served by electric backup heat run at a COP of 1 and pull this figure down, so cold climates sit lower than mild ones.

$8,800

Subtract any state or utility rebate you actually qualify for before entering it. No federal credit applies in 2026.

Running cost, side by side

Natural gas — annual
≈ $930
$15.42 per MMBtu delivered
Heat pump — annual
≈ $1,080
$18.01 per MMBtu delivered
Break-even COP
3.50
the seasonal COP at which running costs match

Estimate, not a guarantee.Rounded for guidance. Your figures depend on your home, local rates, and usage.

Cutaway of a house in winter: an outdoor heat pump takes in cold air, runs on electricity, and delivers warm air to the room inside.
A heat pump moves heat rather than burning fuel: it draws warmth from cold outside air and uses electricity to deliver it indoors. The heat delivered is what this calculator asks for — not the electricity or fuel bought to produce it.

How we calculate this

Formula: Everything is converted to delivered heat. Heat pump cost per MMBtu = (1,000,000 ÷ 3,412 Btu/kWh) × your electricity rate ÷ seasonal COP. Current system cost per MMBtu = (fuel price ÷ Btu content of one unit) ÷ efficiency. Annual cost = cost per MMBtu × annual heat needed. Annual difference = current − heat pump, and it is allowed to be negative. Payback = net install ÷ annual difference, shown only when that difference is a genuine saving.

Assumptions:

  • Default energy prices are illustrative and should be replaced with your own utility rates. Data and default assumptions checked August 2026.
  • Defaults: 18.44¢/kWh electricity (EIA, May 2026 U.S. residential average), $15.34 per Mcf natural gas (EIA, 2025 annual average), $2.67 per gallon propane and $5.54 per gallon heating oil (EIA weekly residential, late March 2026).
  • EIA heat contents: 3,412 Btu per kWh, 1,036 Btu per cubic foot of natural gas, 91,452 Btu per gallon of propane, 137,381 Btu per gallon of heating oil.
  • Default efficiencies — 96% AFUE gas, 95% propane, 85% oil — are illustrative starting points, not measurements of your equipment. Change them to your nameplate figure.
  • No federal tax credit is applied: the 25C credit terminated for property placed in service after 31 December 2025.

Limits: Seasonal COP is the weakest input here and the hardest to know in advance — a cold winter leaning on electric backup heat pulls it well below the rated figure. Annual heat demand is an estimate unless you have derived it from your own fuel bills. This model covers running cost only: it ignores cooling, maintenance, equipment life, electrical panel work, and the value of replacing an air conditioner at the same time. Results are rounded estimates, not quotes.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration · U.S. Energy Information Administration · U.S. Energy Information Administration · U.S. Energy Information Administration · U.S. Department of Energy — Energy Saver

Related guides

Frequently asked questions

Does the calculator include a federal tax credit?

No. The federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (25C) terminated for property placed in service after 31 December 2025, so no federal credit is applied. Subtract any state or utility rebate you qualify for yourself.

Which fuels can I compare against?

Natural gas, heating oil, propane, and electric resistance heat — the four most common baselines for a heat pump upgrade.

Why does it sometimes show no payback?

Because a heat pump does not always cost less to run. Against cheap natural gas at an average U.S. electricity rate it often costs more, and a payback figure would be meaningless. When that happens the calculator shows the additional annual running cost instead, and the break-even COP you would need to close the gap.

How we frame itCostSavingsPaybackConfidenceNext step